Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the NFL Divisional Round Millionaire Maker

Strategy in the Millionaire Maker is much different than head-to-heads and 50-50s.  Every single millionaire winner in this tournament has a player on the roster that makes you scratch your head and say, “how could he have possibly clicked on his name?!”  With that being said, contrarian picks are vital to cashing in this tournament.  Contrarian picks go like this: I expect this player to be extremely high owned, so I am going to pick so-and-so, not only because he will be lower owned, but also because you think he will perform well.  There are a few examples below.  I have listed the players in my Millionaire Maker lineup that I have submitted to DraftKings with some insight of why I picked each player.  I hope this helps, and more importantly, GOOD LUCK!

QB

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This is mainly a contrarian play.   I am predicting Carson Palmer will be the most owned QB in this tournament with over 50% ownership for two reasons.  One, the Cardinals destroyed the Packers back in week 16, and two is a little more obvious; he is a very good player with great weapons surrounding him.  With the projected total being 49 according to Pinnacle Sports, the game is bound to be a shootout.  It seems Rodgers found his mojo against the Redskins last week with the up-tempo offense, and if the Packers want to win this weekend, Rodgers will have to do a lot with his arm.

RBs

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12 touches, 127 yards and a touchdown.  Those are David Johnson’s stats in the first game against the Packers when he sat out most of the 4th quarter due to the lopsided score.  I expect Johnson to benefit from the game being much closer this time around since he will be on the field the whole game.  He should see at least 20 touches against a porous Packers’ defense.  He will most likely be the most owned player in the tournament, and if you fade him, realize that you are taking a huge risk.  He should, arguably, be the most expensive running back on the slate due to his huge workload.  With that being said, play David Johnson at $6,000.

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The Broncos are definitely not the most ideal matchup for the namely Fitzgerald Toussaint.  For the same reason I like the Broncos defense, I like Toussaint.  Big Ben most likely wont be able to be able to chuck the ball downfield so he will have to rely on his checkdown, which will be Fitz.  He will also carry most of the work from Pittsburgh’s backfield after piling up 118 yards on 21 touches (5 receptions) against the stout Bengals defense last week.  I expect Toussaint to see the same amount of work, and with such a depleted running back position, he is one of the few left who isn’t in a 50-50 split with another player.

WRs

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Randall Cobb looked like himself again in Washington last Sunday.  He was the electric, versatile player we once all knew.  He lined up all over the field.  He had 3 catches on 8 targets and 5 carries from the backfield.  He didn’t quite produce the numbers we may like, but the workload is there.  The fact that he will get carries from the backfield makes him that much of a better play.  Expect Patrick Peterson to follow Cobb around the field for most of the game, but he can’t follow him into the backfield where he is most dangerous.  This is also considered a pivot from James Jones.  Recency bias will have James Jones, most likely, being the highest owned wideout from Green Bay, and pivoting to Cobb is a good contrarian for tournaments.

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I do not like to follow narratives, but Demaryius Thomas’ mother may get to watch him play football for the first time in her life, just a little something to chew on.  With Peyton Manning and a fresh arm back under center, I expect DT to produce huge numbers.  He has accrued 12 or more targets in the last 3 games, and the Steelers’ pass defense is 31st in DVP.  I expect Demaryius to have at least 10 targets, which is quite a bit for a guy who has the chance to turn nothing into a touchdown every time he has the ball in his hands.

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The last time Michael Floyd played against the Packers, he torched them for 6 catches and 111 yards on 8 targets.  The Packers’ defense struggles against big, physical receivers, and Floyd is just that.  Floyd should see 7-10 targets and be a big presence in the Cardinals pass game, especially in the red zone where he can out-muscle Green Bay’s corners to go up and get the ball.

TE

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With Gronk being sidelined in practice all week, Greg Olsen seems to be a lock in most lineups.  The Seahawks defense is great, but if there is one area they struggle, it is guarding tight ends where they are 21st in DVP.  Greg Olsen should see plenty of targets from Cam, and I expect Olsen to take full advantage of Seattle’s weakness against tight ends.

FLEX

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Assuming Jeremy Maclin is out, Chris Conley is the ultimate shot-in-the-dark tournament play.  The Chiefs expect Conley to make up for Jeremy Maclin’s absence.  The rookie ran a 4.35 40 yard dash, and damn near jumped out of the stadium with a 45 inch vertical.  Every time he touches the ball, the Patriots will cringe until he is on the ground.  He is an extremely raw player, but one play from this kid could be the difference of $100 and $15,000 in the millionaire maker.

D/ST

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The Steelers offense is completely depleted from injury.  Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are already ruled out for Sunday’s game, and Big Ben is fighting through an AC joint sprain.  The Broncos are number 1 in DVP against opposing QBs, and if Ben can’t throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield or Landry Jones starts, the Broncos should be able to feast.

*All images from http://www.draftkings.com*

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DraftKings NFL Divisional Round: Top 5 RBs

The running back position is incredibly weak with just eight teams remaining on the DraftKings slate for the divisional round.  Only two  running backs remaining in the playoffs finished in the top 10 for rushing yards for the regular season.  One is unlikely to play this weekend, DeAngelo Williams, and the other one is returning to action after missing three consecutive games due to a foot injury, Jonathan Stewart.  I will try to comb through this brutal position and come up with five running backs I like for the divisional round slate.

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David Johnson is just two games removed from roasting the same Packers defense he will be facing this weekend.  It was one of Johnson’s least effective games since he started getting the bulk of the workload in the high-powered Arizona offense.  He posted 127 yards and a touchdown on 12 touches in a game which was well out of hand before halftime.  With a rejuvenated Packers’ offense, I predict this game to be a lot closer than their meeting in December which will keep Johnson on the field throughout the game.  He will continue to see the bulk of the workload both running and catching passes out of the backfield.  If he lines up as a receiver and Packers’ linebacker Jake Ryan has the man coverage assignment on him, Carson Palmer and DFS owners will be licking their chops.

My Projected Stat Line: 21 carries for 95 yards and a TD. 5 receptions 80 yards.  28.5 DraftKings points.

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With Spencer Ware’s availability looking less and less likely as the week going on due to a sprained ankle, Charcandrick West looks to get the bulk of the workload against an average New England run defense.  The Chiefs and Alex Smith could also be without their top pass-catcher, Jeremy Maclin who is dealing with what the Chiefs are calling a “mild” high ankle sprain (if it is even possible for a high ankle sprain to be mild), which could force Andy Reid to lean on the run a little more.  If he does not play, they will be leaning on young WRs Albert Wilson and Chris Conley to make up for his absence.  This also figures well for West since he should be an integral part in the passing attack, as well.

My Projected Stat Line: 15 carries for 110 yards. 5 receptions for 40 yards. 23 DraftKings points.

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Fitzgerald Toussaint was played a huge factor in the brawl last week between the Bengals and Steelers.  He out touched Jordan Todman 21-11 and posted 118 total yards.  Big Ben trusted him in pass protection and also as an outlet when he was in trouble.  I am going to assume DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown are out and Big Ben plays against the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  With that being said, Toussaint figures to lead the charge in the Steelers’ backfield once again.  AC joint sprains are very painful, and even if Ben plays, he will be in a lot of pain and may not be able to launch ball down field like he does so well.  I think Toussaint will play a huge role in the offense as a runner and pass catcher.  The Broncos have a stout defense, but I think a lot of dump offs will be headed his way which will lead to a big day for the namely Fitzgerald Toussaint.

My Projected Stat Line: 16 carries for 70 yards. 8 receptions for 50 yards.  20 DraftKings points.

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Even though J-Stew is coming off a three week absence due to a foot injury, Jonathan Stewart should retain his role as the Panthers’ go-to running back.  He should see about 15-20 touches against a very good Seattle run defense, and the threat of Cam Newton’s running ability should open up some running lanes for Stewart especially in the read-option.

My Projected Stat Line: 18 carries for 80 yards and a TD.  2 receptions for 15 yards. 17.5 DraftKings points.

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Marshawn Lynch has missed seven games due to an abdomen injury.  He ruled himself out right before Seattle’s flight to Minnesota in the Wild Card round due to a supposed setback. The 29 year old’s legs should be fresh if he is ready to go, which I am assuming he will be.  Beast mode should be back in full force and get his normal workload.  This could be his last year in Seattle due to apparent issues with coaches so the Seahawks will not mind pounding him while they have him.

My Projected Stat Line: 15 carries for 90 yards. 3 receptions for 30 yards. 15 DraftKings points.

*All images from http://www.DraftKings.com

 


Super Bowl XLVIII Prediction

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The Super Bowl is finally upon us. The best offense in the league vs. the best defense in the league. One of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game vs. an up-and-comer, Russell Wilson.

Not normally am I excited for the Super Bowl if the Packers aren’t in it, but this year is different. I’m not so sure it will come down to the best offense vs the best defense as it will the Seahawks offense vs the Broncos defense. Both units are average at best. Percy Harvin will be the x-factor for the Seahawks. Terrance Knighton will be the x-factor for the Broncos. Percy, if healthy, will exploit the Broncos terrible secondary. The one thing the Bronco’s defense is good at is their run defense, and Knighton is the main guy.

It will be a hard fought game, and the Seahawks will hang with the Broncos until the fourth quarter. That’s when Peyton will take over the game and open it up.

Broncos 35, Seahawks 24

Let the confetti fall on the classiest man in professional sports, Peyton Manning.


Pre-Super Bowl Must Sees

Frank Caliendo.

Faith, Family, Football.


Seahawks’ Derrick Coleman an inspiration for hearing-impaired girl


With the 21st Pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, The Green Bay Packers Select..

If you’ve watched the Packers at all this year you could argue that every pick in the 2014 NFL Draft should be on defense.

Where do you even begin to fix the defense? Safety? Defensive line? Linebacker?

Safety is the biggest problem for the Packers’ 25th ranked total defense this season. The Packers were ranked 26th in the league in interceptions with 11, and not one of those came from the safety position. Morgan Burnett, M.D. Jennings, Sean Richardson, Chris Banjo and Jeron McMillan all played in one of the safety spots, and not one of them could muster up an interception. With Richardson missing most of the season with a neck injury, Banjo seeing limited playing time and Jeron McMillan being cut mid-season, the lack of production doesn’t seem much of a surprise for this trio. Morgan Burnett and M.D. Jennings, on the other hand, have zero excuses for their horrendous play at the position. Missed tackles and getting burned constantly is not what you look for in a safety, and that is why Ted Thompson and the Packers will draft a safety in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.

Here are a couple of the top prospects at the safety position the Packers may be watching very closely right up until May 8th:

FS, Ha’Sean(Ha Ha) Clinton-Dix, Alabama, 6’1″ 208 lbs.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the top ranked safety in the 2014 draft for B/R’s Matt Miller and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. Clinton-Dix is one of the very few safeties in this draft class to consistently play the run and pass. He will come up in the box to get the ball carrier, but he will also play efficient man-to-man coverage on a slot receiver. He’s not a big hitter but does get the job done. Being able to cover quick slot receivers in the NFL is becoming more and more important. Ha Ha proved he can do it quite well. If he falls to the 21st pick, the Packers would most likely take him. He will be a starter on day one in the NFL regardless of where he goes and would look damn good in green and gold.

FS, Calvin Pryor, Louisville, 6’2″ 208 lbs.

Calvin Pryor is Mel Kiper’s second ranked safety in the draft class. Pryor is a little different player than Clinton-Dix. He is an absolute beast against the run. He rarely misses a tackle, and he loves to hit. . . hard. He flies around the field as you would expect of a free safety. Pryor has not shown much in coverage from his time at Louisville due to the fact that their defense usually has the FS up in the box. When in coverage, he seldom played man. He has shown some flashes when in coverage but not as much as NFL scouts would like. Pryor’s ability to stop the run and cover receivers will make him a sure pick for the Packers if Clinton-Dix is off the board.

The Packers need a safety to come in on day one of the 2014 NFL season and make plays; big plays. The Packers will be happy if either Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor are available with the 21st pick. If one of them are available, expect the Pack to confidently pick them completing the first step to fix a broken defense.


My Perfect Little Family

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Skylar, Cameron and Mason.